Question

Will SpaceX land anything on Mars before 2030?

178

119 comments119

Total Forecasters2394

Community Prediction

20%

(15% - 32%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2018

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.2%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.1%

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

1.2%

Authors:

traviswfisher

Opened:

Mar 29, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Mar 29, 2018

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will SpaceX land people on Mars before 2030?

0.2%

Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?

0.1%

Will a government space agency commence a crewed mission outside of the Earth-Moon system before 2030?

1.2%