Question

Will the year-over-year increase in U.S. Core CPI be above 4.0% for any 6 consecutive months before 2024?

Resolved :Yes91%

42 comments42

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction91% (87% - 98%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 91%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

12.9

Community Peer Score

2.9

Authors:

maraging

Opened:

Aug 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Analysis: How will inflation, interest rates and the U.S. consumer fare in 2025?

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Here’s What To Expect From January’s CPI Inflation Figures

Forbes•Jan 27, 2025

The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates In January Due To Inflation

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

45%

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

3.1

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

maraging

Opened:

Aug 23, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Analysis: How will inflation, interest rates and the U.S. consumer fare in 2025?

PBS NewsHour•Jan 27, 2025

Here’s What To Expect From January’s CPI Inflation Figures

Forbes•Jan 27, 2025

The Fed Is Unlikely To Cut Interest Rates In January Due To Inflation

Forbes•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index be lower in November 2025 than it was in November 2024?

45%

What will be the annual headline CPI inflation in the United States in the following years?

3.1

Will "stagflation" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the "misery index" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?