Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Total Forecasters89

Community Prediction2032-07-21 (2027-06-28 - 2040-01-19)

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weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	Jun 2027	Jul 2032	Jan 2040
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	Jun 2027	—
median	Jul 2032	—
upper 75%	Jan 2040	—

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

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New York Post•Feb 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

8.5%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

4.8%

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