Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters89

Community Prediction2032-06-14

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2027-05-20 06:20

2032-06-14 11:37

2040-02-27 08:45

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Kremlin Warns 'Inevitable Escalation' Over Long Range Missile Strikes

Breitbart•Nov 18, 2024

United States Will Disappear, Russian Lawmaker Threatens on Live TV

Newsweek•Nov 18, 2024

Could Biden's Ukraine Missile Move Trigger World War III? Experts' Verdicts

Newsweek•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

? comments