Question

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters88

Community Prediction2032-06-10 (2027-04-28 - 2040-03-18)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

2027-04-28 06:30

2032-06-10 07:54

2040-03-18 10:09

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US Warns Russia May Deploy New Lethal Missile in Ukraine 'in Coming Days'

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Could Russia destabilize itself?

American Thinker•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US Warns Russia May Deploy New Lethal Missile in Ukraine 'in Coming Days'

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Could Russia destabilize itself?

American Thinker•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

10%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

14%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

Make a Prediction

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Comments

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will there be a US-Russia war before 2050?

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?