Question

Will there be a deadly clash between US and Chinese armed forces before 2024?

Resolved :No

31 comments31

Total Forecasters294

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

93.9

Community Peer Score

6.7

median 0.1%mean 0.9%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

People's Liberation Army

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

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