Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation cause at least 1 fatality before 2024?

Resolved :No

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Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Comments

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

Earthquake in Iran Fuels Speculation of an Iranian Nuclear Test

PJ Media•Oct 9, 2024

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Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

28%