Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

7 comments7

Total Forecasters54

Community Prediction25% (17% - 35.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

China

United States

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

A Single Drone Can Turn the “Peaceful Atom” Into World War 3

CounterPunch•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

25%

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

8.58

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

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