Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

8
7
Total Forecasters53
Community Prediction28% (15% - 37%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 28%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
China
United States
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Russia

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