M

Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

7
2
Total Forecasters55
Community Prediction3.5%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 3.5%
median 3.5%mean 8.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Non-state actor
Plutonium
Nuclear explosion
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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