Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

M

Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

7
2
Total Forecasters54
Community Prediction3.5% (1% - 8.3%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 3.5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Non-state actor
Plutonium
Nuclear explosion
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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