Question
Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?
Total Forecasters57
Community Prediction
3%
(1% - 5%)
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Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75%
Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
26%
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
25%
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jun 27, 2021
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?
75%
Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?
26%
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
25%