Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction

(1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Jun 27, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Non-state actor

Plutonium

Nuclear explosion

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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At least 1 fatality in a non-nuclear-armed state from a nuclear detonation by 2030, if any detonation occurs?

70%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

26%

Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?

25%

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