M

Question

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

7
2
Total Forecasters56
Community Prediction3% (1% - 6%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 3%
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Dec 31, 2029
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Non-state actor
Plutonium
Nuclear explosion
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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