Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

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Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 77.3%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

21%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%