Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

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Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction89% (74% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 89%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

Nuclear Abolition is Focus of UN Meetings in New York

CounterPunch•Mar 6, 2025

REVEALED: The five countries quietly stockpiling nukes amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

15%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21%

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