Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

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Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction80% (70% - 92%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%