Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

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Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction80% (70% - 92%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Jun 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

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