Question

Will the next non-test detonation of a state’s nuclear weapon be immediately preceded by conventional conflict?

no comments0

Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction80%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

median 80.0%mean 76.5%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

South Pacific

Japan

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Cold War

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

North Korea Plans to Expand Nuclear Arsenal

•Nov 18, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

Will no non-test nuclear weapons be detonated before 2035?

80%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%