Question

Will there be at least one HEMP attack by 2024?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters97

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.9

Community Peer Score

2.6

median 0.1%mean 4.2%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

Iran-linked attacks against US skyrocket by 600% since Oct 2023 Hamas attack on Israel: report

FOX News•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

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Kremlin Warns 'Inevitable Escalation' Over Long Range Missile Strikes

Breitbart•Nov 18, 2024

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How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

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