M

Question

How many nuclear weapons will states possess on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :12.5k12.7k
15
7
Total Forecasters119
Community Prediction12.7k (12.1k - 13.3k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<0
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>50k
...
...
...
...
...
0.5%
12.09k
12.67k
13.32k
0.1%

What was the final result?12.5k

Community Baseline Score
149.6
Community Peer Score
15.0
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Arms Control Association
Federation of American Scientists
Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

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