Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality due to accidental or unauthorised nuclear detonation by 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

7 comments7

Total Forecasters132

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.1

Community Peer Score

1.7

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Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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If there's a non-test detonation of a state's nuclear weapon by 2050, will the first such detonation be accidental/unauthorised?

20.9%

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

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