Question

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

45 comments45

Total Forecasters139

Community Prediction1.02

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>50k

...

49.3%

1.017

3.413

1.5%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

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North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

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How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?

7.56

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

22%

How many nuclear weapons will exist globally in 2050?

10.9k

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