Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :3.8k3.88k
4
5
Total Forecasters71
Community Prediction3.88k (3.61k - 4.26k)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15k
...
...
...
...
3.612k
3.88k
4.256k
0.1%

What was the final result?3.8k

Community Baseline Score
125.8
Community Peer Score
16.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Arms Control Association
France
Federation of American Scientists
United Kingdom
United States
Russia

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