M

Question

How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?

Resolved :3.8k3.88k
4
5
Total Forecasters71
Community Prediction3.88k (3.61k - 4.26k)

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My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>15k
...
...
...
...
3.612k
3.88k
4.256k
0.1%

What was the final result?3.8k

Community Baseline Score
125.8
Community Peer Score
16.4
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Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
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Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
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2021-2025 Leaderboard
Arms Control Association
France
Federation of American Scientists
United Kingdom
United States
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