Question
How many deployed nuclear weapons will there be on December 31, 2023?
Resolved :3.8k3.88kTotal Forecasters71
Community Prediction3.88k (3.61k - 4.26k)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 3.612k | — |
| median | 3.88k | — |
| upper 75% | 4.256k | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >15k | 0.1% | — |
What was the final result?3.8k
Community Baseline Score
125.8
Community Peer Score
16.4
Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jun 25, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2024
Resolves:Jan 1, 2024