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M

Question

How many countries will increase the number of nuclear weapons they possess by at least 10% by 2024?

Resolved :21.92
15
27
Total Forecasters107
Community Prediction1.92 (1.16 - 2.4)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>20
...
...
...
...
1.158
1.922
2.398
0.1%

What was the final result?2

Community Baseline Score
108.0
Community Peer Score
20.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Metaculus-PartnersAlyssaStevens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
China
United Kingdom
India
Pakistan
France
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction
Federation of American Scientists
United States
Israel

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