Question

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction8.31

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>300

...

31.5%

8.31

30.44

0.8%

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

24.8%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

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If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

24.8%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%