Question

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters21

Community Prediction...

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>300

...

31.5%

8.31

30.44

0.8%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

Coalition’s nuclear plan will hit Earth with 1.7bn extra tonnes of CO2 before 2050, experts warn

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners AlyssaStevens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Tropical upper tropospheric trough

Environmental science

Climate change denial

Black carbon

Coalition’s nuclear plan will hit Earth with 1.7bn extra tonnes of CO2 before 2050, experts warn

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Why is the U.S. increasing the risk of nuclear war?

Strategic Culture•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many teragrams of black carbon will be injected into the upper troposphere as a result of the next nuclear conflict?

Make a Prediction

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Comments

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?