Question

[Short-Fuse] What proportion of last-round votes will Eric Adams get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?

Resolved :50.450.5

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction50.5 (49.7 - 51.2)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>80
community	49.69	50.47	51.2	0.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	49.69	—
median	50.47	—
upper 75%	51.2	—
Upper bound
>80	0.1%	—

What was the final result?50.4

Community Baseline Score

135.2

Community Peer Score

14.7

Authors:

j.m.

Opened:

Jul 1, 2021

Closes:

Jul 6, 2021

Resolves:

Jul 21, 2021

Eric Adams (politician)

Ranked-choice voting in the United States

New York (state)

Democratic honcho abandons Eric Adams, backs Andrew Cuomo for mayor

New York Post•Feb 28, 2025

Socialist lawmakers among frontrunners in NYC race for mayor — but still lag behind Cuomo in latest poll

New York Post•Mar 1, 2025

Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo enters race for NYC mayor

New York Post•Mar 2, 2025

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