Question

Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?

Resolved :No1%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

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50%

community: 1%

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98.5

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2.8

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Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2018 Leaderboard

John Bolton

Rex Tillerson

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

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Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

Trump declines to comment on preemptive strikes against Iran nuclear facilities: ‘How could I tell you a thing like that now?’

New York Post•Dec 17, 2024

Can Trump Resolve the North Korea Conundrum?

American Conservative•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2018 Leaderboard

John Bolton

Rex Tillerson

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Trump refuses to reveal whether he'll bomb Iran as he threatens 'hell to pay' in Middle East over hostages

Daily Mail•Dec 17, 2024

Trump declines to comment on preemptive strikes against Iran nuclear facilities: ‘How could I tell you a thing like that now?’

New York Post•Dec 17, 2024

Can Trump Resolve the North Korea Conundrum?

American Conservative•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37.1%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?

Make a Prediction

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Comments

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?