Question

Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?

Resolved :No1%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction1% (1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

2.8

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Apr 1, 2018

Closes:

Dec 15, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 23, 2018

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2018 Leaderboard

John Bolton

Rex Tillerson

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

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If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

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