Question

Will the US launch a nuclear first-strike on N. Korea in 2018?

Resolved :No

35 comments35

Total Forecasters410

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

98.5

Community Peer Score

2.8

median 1.0%mean 2.2%

Authors:

Anthony

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

John Bolton

Rex Tillerson

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%

Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?

If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

37%

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