Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction0.427

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.01328

0.427

0.88

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.171

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

0.169

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Metaculus-Partners MichaelA

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

China Warned About US Nuclear Missile Test: Pentagon

Newsweek•Nov 13, 2024

Can the US triple its nuclear energy capacity?

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

How Kim Jong-un's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Agenda

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.171

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?

0.169