Question
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be on well-populated areas?
Total Forecasters28
Community Prediction
0.456%
(0.0137 - 0.919)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 0.01369% | — |
| median | 0.4556% | — |
| upper 75% | 0.9191% | — |
Authors:
Opened:Aug 21, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2021
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.171
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 21, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 23, 2021
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by countries by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.171
What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?
0.0269
What proportion of non-test nuclear weapon detonations by 2050 will be against battlefield targets?
0.169