Question

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?

Resolved :No

25 comments25

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction13%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

48.0

Community Peer Score

8.4

median 13.0%mean 15.1%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Visualising the war in Sudan: Conflict, control and displacement

Al Jazeera•Nov 14, 2024

Amnesty International says weapons from U.S. allies are fueling Sudan's raging civil war

CBS•Nov 15, 2024

Is there any way to stop the war in Sudan?

Al Jazeera•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%