Question

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?

Resolved :No13%

25 comments25

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction13% (6% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 13%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

48.0

Community Peer Score

8.4

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Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Besieged and Bombed Amid Famine, Hundreds of Thousands of IDPs Struggle to Survive in Darfur

CounterPunch•Dec 23, 2024

‘Unprecedented’ famine spreading in war-torn Sudan, report says

PBS NewsHour•Dec 25, 2024

Sudan’s civil war worsens, children starve amidst rising humanitarian crisis across Africa

•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Besieged and Bombed Amid Famine, Hundreds of Thousands of IDPs Struggle to Survive in Darfur

CounterPunch•Dec 23, 2024

‘Unprecedented’ famine spreading in war-torn Sudan, report says

PBS NewsHour•Dec 25, 2024

Sudan’s civil war worsens, children starve amidst rising humanitarian crisis across Africa

•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

40%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will there be a bilateral cease-fire of at least 30 days in the Tigray war before 2022?

Make a Prediction

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Comments

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?