Question

What inflation-adjusted return will the Vanguard Information Technology ETF yield from 2021-2040 if AGI arrives by 2040, in percentage points?

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Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction1.69k

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

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2.4%

286.3

1.694k

14.15k

1.9%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

US Consumer Price Index

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?

680

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.36

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

Comments

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Artificial Intelligence

Economy & Business

US Consumer Price Index

Philosophy

Artificial general intelligence

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What will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?

680

What percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?

6.36

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2