Question

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters117

Community Prediction66% (56% - 75%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 66%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Hopes for 'reunification' a fact of life on China's window to Taiwan

Raw Story•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

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Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Comments

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?