Question

Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

Resolved :Yes

165 comments165

Total Forecasters163

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 99.0%mean 98.4%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

Taliban to attend UN Cop29 in Baku in a first after Afghanistan takeover

Independent•Nov 11, 2024

The Taliban will attend a U.N. climate conference for the first time

NBC•Nov 11, 2024

Taliban Terrorists to Discuss Fighting Climate Change at U.N. Conference

Breitbart•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%