Question

Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

Resolved :Yes

165 comments165

Total Forecasters163

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

median 99.0%mean 98.4%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

ISIS-K threat grows as it targets disaffected Muslims with sophisticated propaganda

NBC•Oct 20, 2024

Global Chaos Ignited Under Biden-Harris: WW3 Fears Surge as Election Nears

Breitbart•Oct 21, 2024

Presidential election could help decide fate of the 70,000 Afghans living temporarily in the US

The Conversation•Oct 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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