Question

Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

Resolved :Yes99%

165 comments165

Total Forecasters163

Community Prediction99% (99% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

0.5

Community Peer Score

0.1

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

China Urges 'Stability' in Syria as Victorious Uyghur Rebels Threaten Xi

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Trump's pledge against 'forever wars' could be tested with Syria in hands of jihadist factions

FOX News•Dec 14, 2024

Thousands Mourn Taliban Minister Killed in IS Suicide Attack

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan

China Urges 'Stability' in Syria as Victorious Uyghur Rebels Threaten Xi

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Trump's pledge against 'forever wars' could be tested with Syria in hands of jihadist factions

FOX News•Dec 14, 2024

Thousands Mourn Taliban Minister Killed in IS Suicide Attack

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

10%

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

77.1%

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Will the Taliban capture the Presidential Palace in Kabul by 2026-09-11?

Make a Prediction

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Comments

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

Will the United States recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

Will China recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?