Question

Which fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040?

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction39.9 (34.1 - 45.4)

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This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	34.06	39.95	45.36
My Prediction	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	34.06	—
median	39.95	—
upper 75%	45.36	—

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Jul 30, 2021

Closed:

Jan 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Frankfurt

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

emilowk

Opened:

Jul 30, 2021

Closed:

Jan 1, 2025

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2040

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Frankfurt

Germany

Be grateful you’re still here: Germany’s rebuke of a grieving mother exposes its deepening anti-immigrant mood

Guardian•Mar 5, 2025

Germany, revival 1949

Strategic Culture•Mar 6, 2025

Nearly One Million People Speak Little or No English in England

Breitbart•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be Germany's total dependency ratio in 2039?

75.1

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

53.4

Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?

55%

MetaculusM

Which fraction of the German population will have a migration background in 2040?

Make a Prediction

What will be Germany's total dependency ratio in 2039?

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?

Comments

What will be Germany's total dependency ratio in 2039?

What fraction of the world's population will live in a democracy in 2040?

Will less than 70% of Fortune 500 CEOs in the US be non-Hispanic white in the year 2050?

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