Question

Will the UK's third wave of COVID-19 exceed 250 deaths/day?

Resolved :No16%

32 comments32

Total Forecasters116

Community Prediction16% (11% - 23%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 16%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

66.4

Community Peer Score

9.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Call for action after ‘devastating’ rise in drink deaths in England

Independent•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Flu crisis in numbers: Hospitalisations up 360% from last year as NHS under strain

Independent•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?

815

Comments

? comments

Authors:

alexrjl

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Call for action after ‘devastating’ rise in drink deaths in England

Independent•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Flu crisis in numbers: Hospitalisations up 360% from last year as NHS under strain

Independent•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

Will there be a novel pathogen that kills over 25 million people between 2022 and 2031 (inclusive)?

What will the age-adjusted mortality rate be in England and Wales in 2051?

815