Question

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

-13

48 comments48

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction12.6

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

2.91e-1

12.6

13.9

9.6%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

11M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.8

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

11M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.8

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Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

Make a Prediction

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Comments

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?