Question

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

-13

46 comments46

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction13.1 (0.465 - 14)

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weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

0.4655

13.15

14.01

8.7%

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

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In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

3.39M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2027-03-12

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Secret US Army study hints we're living in a holographic universe

Daily Mail•Dec 19, 2024

Smartest man in the world with 210 IQ shares what he thinks happens after we die

Daily Mail•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

3.39M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2027-03-12

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

45.2

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

Make a Prediction

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

Comments

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?