Question

Assuming our future simulates us, what will be the first peer-reviewed guesses of our instantiation date?

-13

46 comments46

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction13.1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

0.4655

13.15

14.01

8.7%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

3.39M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2027-03-12

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Simulation hypothesis

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In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?

3.39M

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2027-03-12

After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?

42.2