Question

[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?

Resolved :Ambiguous

10 comments10

Total Forecasters20

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

median 1.0%mean 19.3%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

People's Liberation Army

Henan

Luoyang

Central Theater Command

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

People's Liberation Army

Henan

Luoyang

Central Theater Command

Hundreds evacuated over feared dam failure in North Carolina following Storm Helene flooding

Independent•Oct 1, 2024

Helene Live Updates: Southeast reels from deadly storm damage and heavy flooding

NBC•Oct 1, 2024

Here's how Hurricane Helene brought "biblical devastation" to western North Carolina in a near "worst-case scenario"

CBS•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

35%

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

20%

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[Short Fuse]: Will the Yihetan Dam collapse, killing at least 1,000 people, before September 1 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Comments

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?