Question

Will a state actor conduct an ASAT test that results in space debris between 2021 - 2023?

Resolved :Yes

11 comments11

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-5.8

Community Peer Score

2.1

median 99.0%mean 96.3%

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Anti-satellite weapon

Military science

China

Union of Concerned Scientists

Mission Shakti

The Aerospace Corporation

India

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Aerospace engineering

2007 Chinese anti-satellite missile test

Will a non-test ASAT weapon be used against a satellite before 2030?

28%

Will space debris cause at least one fatality in space before 2035?

How many ASAT tests will occur by 2030?

3.31

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