Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction0.091

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upper 75%

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7.4%

0.01184

0.091

0.306

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00235

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00235