Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction0.0866 (0.0119 - 0.296)

Make a Prediction

weight:

My Prediction

community

<0.001

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

7.1%

0.01192

0.08661

0.2963

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

NASA’s Voyager Probes Find Puzzles beyond the Solar System

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00229

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

The Human Brain Operates at a Stunningly Slow Pace

Scientific American•Dec 18, 2024

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

NASA’s Voyager Probes Find Puzzles beyond the Solar System

Scientific American•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00229

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?