Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Total Forecasters9

Community Prediction0.108 (0.0175 - 0.325)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	<0.001	lower 25%	median	upper 75%
community	5.8%	0.01746	0.1077	0.3252
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Lower bound	community	My Prediction
<0.001	5.8%	—
Quartiles
lower 25%	0.01746	—
median	0.1077	—
upper 75%	0.3252	—

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Aug 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

Evolving intelligent life took billions of years − but it may not have been as unlikely as many scientists predicted

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Intelligent Aliens May Be Common On Earth-Like Planets, Scientists Say

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Odds of human-like lifeforms on other planets may be more likely than previously thought: study

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00261

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Aug 11, 2022

Closes:

Jan 1, 2200

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2200

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

Evolving intelligent life took billions of years − but it may not have been as unlikely as many scientists predicted

The Conversation•Feb 16, 2025

Intelligent Aliens May Be Common On Earth-Like Planets, Scientists Say

Forbes•Feb 16, 2025

Odds of human-like lifeforms on other planets may be more likely than previously thought: study

New York Post•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

17.3%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

0.00261