Question

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction9e-2

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1e-3

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

7.4%

1.18e-2

9e-2

3.06e-1

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Astronomy

Stuart Armstrong

Robotics

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

Comments

? comments

Authors:

WilliamKiely

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Outline of space science

Astronomy

Stuart Armstrong

Robotics

Self-replicating spacecraft

Philosophy

Fermi paradox

Aerospace engineering

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

10%

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

2.56e-3

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?

What will be the greatest velocity (in c) attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?