Question

Will the first human clone be made in China?

30 comments30

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction38.3% (30% - 47%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 38.3%

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

May 23, 2022

Closes:

Dec 31, 2079

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2080

Natural Sciences

Social Sciences

Technology

Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua

He Jiankui affair

China

Scientist challenges 'out of Africa' theory with new origin for modern humans

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

‘They don’t want me to rise again’: China’s gene-editing scientist on why he’s back in the lab

Spectator (UK)•Jan 27, 2025

Technology for lab-grown eggs or sperm on brink of viability, UK fertility watchdog finds

Guardian•Jan 27, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the first cloned human be born?

2040-08-28

Will China be the first country to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

15%

Will China be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?

55.2%

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