Question

Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?

Resolved :No10%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction10% (7% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.3

Community Peer Score

2.0

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Aug 15, 2021

Closes:

Jan 27, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2023

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Ukraine–NATO relations

List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

List of German Green Party politicians

Belgium

NATO

How Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Compares to US'

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

Zelensky Says Ukraine Giving Up Nukes Was ‘Stupid, Illogical, and Irresponsible’

Breitbart•Jan 30, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Comments

? comments