Question

Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?

Resolved :No10%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction10% (7% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.3

Community Peer Score

2.0

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Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Italy

Turkey

Netherlands

List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

List of German Green Party politicians

Belgium

NATO

Germany

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Calls on Nations To Divert Social Security Money to Defense

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

US Quietly Hands Ukraine Support to NATO Ahead of Donald Trump's Return

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Italy

Turkey

Netherlands

List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

List of German Green Party politicians

Belgium

NATO

Germany

Ukraine–NATO relations

NATO Calls on Nations To Divert Social Security Money to Defense

Newsweek•Dec 16, 2024

Russia Warns Of NATO War Within 10 Years

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

US Quietly Hands Ukraine Support to NATO Ahead of Donald Trump's Return

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?

Make a Prediction

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Comments

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?