Question

Will a NATO nuclear-sharing country sign the TPNW by the end of 2022?

Resolved :No

3 comments3

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.3

Community Peer Score

2.0

median 10.0%mean 12.3%

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Italy

Turkey

Netherlands

List of parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

List of German Green Party politicians

Belgium

NATO

Germany

Ukraine–NATO relations

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

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