Question

Will Zablon Simintov, the last remaining Jew in Afghanistan, leave before Kabul is captured by the Taliban?

Resolved :No30%

20 comments20

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction30% (25% - 47%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

0.8

Community Peer Score

1.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Reasons to Leave Syria—and to Return

New Yorker•Dec 17, 2024

For thousands of Jews, Israel still doesn’t feel safe after the Oct. 7 attacks. So they’re leaving

Associated Press•Dec 20, 2024

Thousands of Jews have left Israel since the October 7 attacks

CBS•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Israel recognize the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan before 2030?

1.8%

Will Taliban-controlled Afghanistan be used as a base for anti-NATO terrorism before 2027?

45%

How many US Jews will move to Israel by 2050?

119k

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