Question

Will at least 2 US diplomats die or be captured in the evacuation of Kabul?

Resolved :No10%

48 comments48

Total Forecasters135

Community Prediction10% (7% - 15%)

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50%

community: 10%

Did this actually happen?No

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77.5

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3.2

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Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United States Diplomatic and Consular Staff in Tehran

Marine Security Guard

United States

Authorities say 22 rescued from Afghanistan mine collapse

Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

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Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

Hostage Families Demand Deal in Which All 100 Are Releasaed

Breitbart•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?

2028-07-15

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

uganda

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

United States Diplomatic and Consular Staff in Tehran

Marine Security Guard

United States

Authorities say 22 rescued from Afghanistan mine collapse

Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

Taliban’s Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani killed: Why it matters

Al Jazeera•Dec 16, 2024

Hostage Families Demand Deal in Which All 100 Are Releasaed

Breitbart•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the United States reopen its embassy in Kabul Afghanistan?

2028-07-15

By 2030, will at least 10,000 Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?

15%

Will there be at least one fatality from nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, if any detonation occurs?

28%