Question

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction2084-03-14 (2062-03-24 - 2113-04-28)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2125-12-30
community	2062	2084	2113	18.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	2062	—
median	2084	—
upper 75%	2113	—
Upper bound
>2125-12-30	18.5%	—

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Aug 20, 2021

Closes:

Aug 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2125

Politics

Millard Fillmore

Democratic Party (US)

Republican Party (US)

President of the US

United States

Whig Party (United States)

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Democratic donor John Morgan launches new political party ahead of possible run for Florida governor

FOX News•Feb 28, 2025

More than half of Americans believe Trump will try for a third term - despite Constitution saying he can’t

Independent•Mar 2, 2025

Reeling From Hurricane Trump, Democrats Struggle to Find a Leader, Purpose

Red State•Mar 2, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a US president who's not a Democrat or Republican be inaugurated before 2080?

33%

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

1.4%

Comments

? comments