Question

When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through January 1, 2022?

Resolved :Jan 19, 20242024-01-25

62 comments62

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction2024-01-25 (2023-12-27 - 2024-03-01)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2029-12-31

...

2023-12-27 00:31

2024-01-25 11:28

2024-03-01 21:27

0.5%

What was the final result?Jan 19, 2024

Community Baseline Score

17.3

Community Peer Score

20.6

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

NASA’s 2 stuck astronauts face more time in space with return delayed until at least late March

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

NASA Snaps Dusty Mars InSight Lander ‘Farewell’ Image From Orbit

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

NASA’s Mars helicopter was grounded in 2024 after surprise success

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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41.6%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

NASA’s 2 stuck astronauts face more time in space with return delayed until at least late March

Associated Press•Dec 18, 2024

NASA Snaps Dusty Mars InSight Lander ‘Farewell’ Image From Orbit

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

NASA’s Mars helicopter was grounded in 2024 after surprise success

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

773

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

2.09

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

41.6%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

When will the Mars helicopter Ingenuity stop making successful flights for 6 months, if it is operational through January 1, 2022?

Make a Prediction

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

Comments

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?

What will be the longest uninterrupted stay (in days) in deep space before 2051?

What will be the mean consecutive length of stay by cumulative moon visitors in the following years?

Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?