Question

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction61.8% (50% - 74.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61.8%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Urgent warning to eight US states as bomb cyclone is expected to cause hurricane-like conditions

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Rapidly strengthening storm in the Northeast leads to power outages, extensive flight delays

New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Urgent warning to eight US states as bomb cyclone is expected to cause hurricane-like conditions

Daily Mail•Dec 13, 2024

Rapidly strengthening storm in the Northeast leads to power outages, extensive flight delays

New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

11.4

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

Make a Prediction

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

Comments

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?