Question

Will New York City experience a hurricane before 2030?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction61.8% (50% - 74.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61.8%

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

The common thread between hurricanes and wildfires? Increasingly strong winds

Independent•Jan 19, 2025

America's most expensive natural disasters in recent decades

FOX News•Jan 13, 2025

The 10 safest states in the US in 2025 — and six of them are in one region right near NYC

New York Post•Jan 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.9

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Environment & Climate

New York City

Meteorology

Natural disaster

1938 New England hurricane

Hurricane Sandy

Saffir–Simpson scale

The common thread between hurricanes and wildfires? Increasingly strong winds

Independent•Jan 19, 2025

America's most expensive natural disasters in recent decades

FOX News•Jan 13, 2025

The 10 safest states in the US in 2025 — and six of them are in one region right near NYC

New York Post•Jan 18, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many North Atlantic hurricanes will occur in the following years?

10.9

Will the number of homicides in New York City exceed 1,500 in any year before 2050?

10%

Will National Hurricane Center 48 hour annual average track error for Atlantic Basin tropical storms and hurricanes be 30 nautical miles or less for any year before 2031?

50%