Question

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

53 comments53

Total Forecasters223

Community Prediction8% (5% - 12%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

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Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

China

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Taiwan

China

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Taiwan gets its first US Abrams tanks as it prepares for a possible invasion by China

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Taipei mayor calls for less confrontation as China continues sending ships, planes near island

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?

66%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%