Question

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction19.9% (12% - 23%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 19.9%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

House of Commons of the UK

Conservative Party (UK)

British Army

Tom Tugendhat

Prime Minister of the UK

At last, a figure has emerged who could wrench power from Viktor Orbán in Hungary | Viktória Serdült

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Brian Mast As Foreign Policy Indicator: New Boss, Same As The Old Boss

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

The Trump effect will benefit Farage – and cost the Tories

Spectator (UK)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Politics

House of Commons of the UK

Conservative Party (UK)

British Army

Tom Tugendhat

Prime Minister of the UK

At last, a figure has emerged who could wrench power from Viktor Orbán in Hungary | Viktória Serdült

Guardian•Dec 18, 2024

Brian Mast As Foreign Policy Indicator: New Boss, Same As The Old Boss

OpEdNews•Dec 19, 2024

The Trump effect will benefit Farage – and cost the Tories

Spectator (UK)•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.8%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Comments

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?