Question

Will Tom Tugendhat become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

21 comments21

Total Forecasters61

Community Prediction19.9% (12% - 23%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 19.9%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Oct 30, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Politics

British Army

House of Commons of the UK

Tom Tugendhat

Conservative Party (UK)

Prime Minister of the UK

Why 2025 could redefine politics

Spectator (UK)•Feb 18, 2025

Nigel Farage Leads Betting Odds to Become Next British Prime Minister

Breitbart•Feb 19, 2025

Who is Friedrich Merz, the pilot politician tipped to be German chancellor?

Guardian•Feb 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.7%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

12%

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Oct 30, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Politics

British Army

House of Commons of the UK

Tom Tugendhat

Conservative Party (UK)

Prime Minister of the UK

Why 2025 could redefine politics

Spectator (UK)•Feb 18, 2025

Nigel Farage Leads Betting Odds to Become Next British Prime Minister

Breitbart•Feb 19, 2025

Who is Friedrich Merz, the pilot politician tipped to be German chancellor?

Guardian•Feb 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Kwasi Kwarteng become UK Conservative Party Leader before 2030?

0.7%

Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?

12%

Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?

25%