Question

Will a civil war break out in a country with median age above 30 before 2070?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters59

Community Prediction89% (84.2% - 91%)

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50%

community: 89%

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Demographics of Africa

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Southern Africa elections brought big changes in 2024

Associated Press•Dec 24, 2024

South Korea becomes ‘super-aged’ society, new data shows

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?

80%

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

Forecasting Civil Wars in the Modern World

Comments

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Authors:

stanulamstan

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Demographics of Africa

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Southern Africa elections brought big changes in 2024

Associated Press•Dec 24, 2024

South Korea becomes ‘super-aged’ society, new data shows

CNN•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2070, Will there be a civil war in a country that, in January 2022, had a median age above 30?

80%