Question

If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

47 comments47

Total Forecasters161

Community Prediction78.5% (70% - 88%)

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50%

community: 78.5%

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Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

European Union

China

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China breaks silence on apparent military drills around Taiwan

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

The Taiwan Tinderbox

Geopolitics

People's Liberation Army

European Union

China

Accession of Turkey to the EU

Chinese military presence around Taiwan intensifies with more aircraft

•Dec 13, 2024

China breaks silence on apparent military drills around Taiwan

Independent•Dec 14, 2024

China is getting ready to take on Trump

Spectator (UK)•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

44.5%

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If there are 100 deaths in conflict between China and Taiwan before 2050, will Taiwan receive direct military support from allied nations?

Make a Prediction

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Comments

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?

Will armed conflicts between the United States and the People's Republic of China lead to at least 100 deaths before 2050?

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2026?