Question
Question
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?
Total Forecasters136
Community Prediction78%
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median 78.0%mean 66.2%
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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
25%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
65%
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
1%
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?
25%
If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?
65%
Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?
1%