Question

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters136

Community Prediction80% (67% - 85%)

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50%

community: 80%

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Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

Tesla

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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Charles

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

US dollar

Tesla

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

61.5%

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Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 100 deaths and/or at least $1B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Make a Prediction

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Comments

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?

Will an infrastructure disaster costing >$1B in a G20 country be widely attributed to an AI cyberattack before 2025?