Question

Will mean log-odds outperform median log-odds for the next 100 questions?

Resolved :Yes55%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters10

Community Prediction55% (53% - 56%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 55%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

16.4

Community Peer Score

-3.6

Authors:

SimonM

Opened:

Sep 16, 2021

Closes:

Sep 30, 2021

Resolves:

Jan 31, 2024

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

Me-calculus: Continuous predictions arrive

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